‘Attack on Iran would ignite regional conflict’

 

 

Former adviser to US administration says Israeli strike on Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities could mean a disaster for both Jerusalem, Washington; spark regional war ‘from Gaza to Afghanistan’

An Israeli strike in Iran will have disastrous ramifications and place Israel and the United States at risk, Bruce Riedel, the former special assistant to the US president and senior director for near east affairs on the National Security Council, told Ynet on Wednesday.

“An Israeli attack on Iran could ignite a regional conflict from Afghanistan to the Gaza strip,” warned Riedel, adding that “for the Americans and the Obama administration it will be a disaster.”

Riedel, a senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution, noted that such a scenario would lead to an Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel and another possible front with Hezbollah. 

“Hezbollah will see an attack on Iran as a threat to their patron and there is a very good chance that they will initiate (another) Lebanon war only this time (with) even more rockets and missiles than in 2006,” said Riedel, adding that an Israeli strike in Iran must include a preemptive strike on Hezbollah.

The former CIA analyst said The Brookings Institute made a war game simulating an Israeli attack on Iran, and came to the conclusion that a perfect strike is impossible, and would place Israel in a vulnerable position – and the United States in an even tougher spot.

“We have every reason to believe that the Iranian will see an Israeli attack on their nuclear facilities as a joint American-Israeli attack and they will retaliate not only on Israeli targets but on American targets.

“The Iranian (have the) capacity to retaliate against America not only in the Middle East and the Persian gulf – (but even more so) in Afghanistan where we have 90,000 troops and where the Iranians (have) well-established links to the Taliban,” he said.

‘Media feeds the flames’

Riedel commented on the recent media frenzy in Israeli papers surrounding the possibility of an IDF strike in the Islamic Republic, saying: “I took a look at your papers. It’s crazy. I don’t really understand why now.

“It almost feeds the flames. Either the Netanyahu government has something new that the rest of us don’t know about, or (he is) misreading the events in the region.

“Perhaps the spoiled assassination (attempt) against the Saudi ambassador would make the Obama government more sympathetic to an attack on Iran. If that’s the case, they are making a very big mistake,” Riedel noted, adding that “the Obama administration made it clear from day one that they don’t support an Israeli military strike on Iran.”

Meanwhile on Wednesday, UK-based newspaper The Guardian reported that Britain’s armed forces are stepping up their contingency plans for potential military action against Iran amid mounting concern over Tehran’s nuclear program.

British defense officials told the newspaper that the “the window (of opportunity) is closing and the UK needs to do some sensible forward planning” by the 2012 US presidential elections.

http://theuglytruth.wordpress.com/2011/11/03/attack-on-iran-would-ignite-regional-conflict/#more-31010

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Israel attack on Iran military suicide

By Ismail Salami   Press TV  November 03, 2011 There is a strong speculation that Israel is bound to mount an attack on Iranian nuclear sites, a threat which the Zionist regime has frequently repeated and an idea which, if translated into action, will bring about apocalyptic consequences for the Zionist entity. Reportedly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has recently sought to drum up cabinet support for a military strike against the nuclear sites of the Islamic republic of Iran. In joint efforts with the defense minister Ehud Barak, Netanyahu has succeeded in wringing support for such a reckless act from the skeptics who were already opposed to launching an attack on Iran. Among those he managed to convince was Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman. There are still those in the Israeli cabinet who are against such a move including Interior Minister Eli Yishai of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, Intelligence Minister Dan Meridor, Strategic Affairs Minister and Netanyahu confidant Moshe Yaalon, Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz, army chief Benny Gantz, the head of Israel’s intelligence agency Tamir Pardo, the chief of military intelligence Aviv Kochavi and the head of Israel’s domestic intelligence agency Yoram Cohen. However, the support voiced by Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman is considered an ace in the hole for Netanyahu who also enjoys the full-throated support of Washington. In a show of military prowess and obvious brinkmanship, Israel test-fired a nuke capable missile on Wednesday which cannot be taken as a coincidence considering the threat made by Netanyahu. „Israel today carried out the test-firing of a rocket propulsion system from the Palmachim base,” a Defense Ministry statement said. „This had been long planned by the Defense establishment and was carried out as scheduled.” Echoing his old familiar comments about Iran, Netanyahu said, „A nuclear Iran will pose a serious threat to the Middle East and the entire world, and it of course poses a direct and heavy threat to us” Also on Wednesday, Israeli Foreign Minister accused Iran of being “the largest, most dangerous threat to the current world order”, adding that Israel expects the international community to “step up efforts to act against it.” Moshe Yaalon, Israel’s strategic affairs minister, told Army Radio on Tuesday, „The military option (against Iran) is not an empty threat, but Israel should not leap to lead it. The whole thing should be lead by the United States, and as a last resort.” There seems to be a united front against Iran in the Israeli cabinet but as far as a military strike is concerned, there is a difference of opinion as to the sanity of such an act and the looming consequences it may incur. Be it as it may, one of the main factors which render such an act implausible is that Israel is well aware of Iran’s military competence and self-sufficiency. From a military point of view, Iran is known as the best in the region and one of the best in the world in terms of missile industry. The successful production of the short-, medium- and long-range missiles Shahab (Meteor) and Sejjil (Baked Clay), Saqeb (falling stone) and Sayyad (Hunter), Fateh (Conqueror) and Zelzal (Temblor), Misaq (Covenant) and Ra’ad (Thunder), Toufan (Storm) and Safar (Journey) bears testimony to this claim. The country has so far succeeded in producing more than 50 types of high-tech missiles as part of its deterrent strategy for enhancing military might as it has always been exposed to threats by the Zionist regime and Washington. The recent Iranian missile Qader (powerful), a magnum achievement, is a sea-launched cruise missile which has a highly destructive power and can eliminate frigates, warships as well as any coastal targets. With a range of over 200 kilometers, the missile can evade any highly advanced radar systems. A senior IRGC commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh has already stated that Iran has the know-how to build missiles with over 2,000 kilometers but since the US and Israeli targets are within the reach of the current missiles, the country does not see any point in doing so. “Iran’s missiles have a range of up to 2,000 kilometers and have been designed for US and the Zionist regime (Israel)’s bases in the region,” he added. According to the Iranian commander, as there is a distance of 1,200 kilometers between Iran and Israel, Iran is already capable of targeting the Zionist regime with the current missiles. Needless to say, Sejjil (Baked Clay) and Shahab missiles rank among the missiles capable of targeting objects within a range of 2,000 kilometers. With over 50 types of state-of-the-art missiles at its disposal, Iran is readily capable of delivering a death blow to any aggressor who ventures to violate its soil. However, Iran has frequently said its military might poses no threat to other countries and that its defense doctrine is based on deterrence. As the Leader of the Islamic revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has said the “main objective of producing weapons in Iran is defending the country against bullying enemies” while in the West, “the main reason for weapons production is increasing the wealth of the weapons cartels.” Regardless of Iran’s military might in countering any audacious aggression, Israel is standing on its last feet as poverty and social strife are rampant in the country and the people have already begun pressing their hands on Tel Aviv’s throat. It matters little on what grounds the idea of attacking Iran was articulated in the minds of the Israelis or who was the initial originator of this imbecilic notion. What is important is that an Israeli attack will not only disturb the political equilibrium in the Middle East but it will inflict losses of inconceivable proportions upon the Zionist entity as well. A military strike by Israel on Iran is tantamount to a final nail in the coffin of Zionism. – Ismail Salami is an Iranian author and political analyst. A prolific writer, he has written numerous books and articles on the Middle East. His articles have been translated into a number of languages. http://hamsayeh.net/world/1315-israel-attack-on-iran-military-suicide.html

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IRAN? To dream beautiful

A military war of nerves against Iran: The US leads, Israel and UK go along

HMS Astute: British nuclear attack submarine

The sudden rush of military news Wednesday, Nov. 2, was part of an orchestrated Western performance to persuade Tehran that the US, Britain and Israel are on the verge of a military operation against its nuclear installations. The show, directed from Washington, was meant to warn Iran that  military punishment was in store unless it gives up its drive for a nuclear weapon. If Tehran continues to hold out, President Barack Obama may decide to strike Revolutionary Guards Corps, the bulwark of the Islamic regime, as well as its strategic infrastructure, thereby removing key props holding up the regime of the ayatollahs.
Contributing to the menacing climate hanging over Iran were four headline events involving Israel – all on the same Wednesday: Israel conducted a successful test launch of a new intercontinental ballistic missile, Jericho 3, which foreign sources report is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead 7,000 kilometers.

After that, the IDF released photographs of Israeli Air Force squadron leaders reporting from Italian air base runways  to the media on joint exercises they had conducted in long-range maneuvers with the Italian air force „and other NATO nations,” to familiarize the IAF with NATO military tactics.

The inference was clear: The Israeli Air Force was strengthening its cooperation with Western allies in preparation for a NATO assault on Iran. The IAF also got a chance to study the lessons Western alliance air force tacticians had drawn from the eight-month Libyan operation which ended on Oct. 31.
Next, the IDF’s Home Command announced a large-scale anti-missile exercise in central Israel starting Thursday morning, Nov. 3.
Finally, Defense Minister Ehud Barak left for an unscheduled trip to London shortly after a secret visit to Israel by the British chief of staff General Sir David Richards earlier this week as guest of Israel’s top soldier Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz.
If the British general was in Israel only this week, why was Barak is such a hurry to visit London?

The answer came from the British media, which reported as soon as he arrived that the Ministry of Defense in London had accelerated and upgraded its contingency planning for participation in a US-led assault on Iran. They carried an account of plans for deploying large naval units including submarines to the Persian Gulf.

The UK was reported to have asked Washington for permission to station its fighter-bombers on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia for launching bombing sorties against Iran.

This whirlwind of military activity was said to have been prompted by the approaching publication of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Iran report next Tuesday, Nov. 8 and the conclusion the nuclear watchdog had reached: Inside 12 months, Iran will have tucked all its nuclear and ballistic missile facilities away in deep underground tunnels where they will be invulnerable to attack.
A potential US-British strike to pre-empt this move would also be timed for the run-up to America’s next presidential election in November 2012.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that if the US, Britain and other NATO nations, such as France, Italy and Germany, participate in the attack, Israel will not. Its army, air force and navy will defend the home front, be available to engage Iran’s allies to prevent them from striking the assault forces from the rear, and act as a strategic reserve. The danger would come from Syria, the Lebanese Hizballah, and the Palestinian Hamas and Jihad Islami in the Gaza Strip.

These contingency plans are subject to changes, especially if President Obama and other NATO allies decide after all against attacking Iran in the coming year. The hyperactivity will then subside and Israel will be thrown back on the dilemma of having to decide whether or not to conduct a lone military operation against Iran.

There is not much time for contemplation. Syria and Hizballah are reported by DEBKAfile’s military sources to be in the throes of separate preparations for attacking Israel if their respective grips on power are shaken. For now, those sources rate the chances of Israel facing a military clash with Syria and/or Hizballah much higher than a NATO-Israeli showdown being mounted against Iran.

http://www.debka.com/article/21443/

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